By Iain Begg, Brian Henry
This ebook incorporates a selection of particularly commissioned papers within which prime economists discover the position of utilized economics in informing public coverage. The contributions conceal macroeconomic modeling, using corporation facts to evaluate fiscal functionality, recommendations for information amassing and coverage research. The publication covers quite a few study equipment and exhibits how those were utilized in perform to clarify financial difficulties. utilized economics is either an paintings and a technological know-how, and this ebook demonstrates why.
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Additional info for Applied Economics and Public Policy (Department of Applied Economics Occasional Papers)
The potential for economic behaviour to change over time, by itself, suggests that our knowledge needs to evolve quickly enough to keep pace. Offsetting, to some extent, the negative evidence of forecast failure - to anticipate the recession of the early 1990s both in the US and the UK, for example - there are some positive signs. The greater emphasis on economic theory in model building, already alluded to, and evidenced in this volume, is a helpful development, as is the convergence in some areas on the need to test these theories in empirical models.
These results come at a stage before the construction and testing of the model have been completed. The employment, wage and price relationships have been finished (Barker and Gardiner, 1996), but in other areas, for example consumption (Bracke and Brechet, 1994), the research of the team has not been fully incorporated into the model. The estimated equations are a starting point for further research, and the goodness-of-fit statistics are one criterion for deciding whether an improvement has been made.
One is the dual role of these models: they are meant both to represent a complete macro-structure, and to provide useful forecasts. But structures change, sometimes abruptly, and Introduction 9 this raised more profound questions about the role of economic theory in models, and the use of models in testing theories. A further, and major, complication is the search for theories which allow for behaviourial change, and the development of techniques for dealing with such change. The role of theory in models, especially that relevant to what appears to be a changing world, is thus a crucial area for applied economics.